Global wheat supply is showing signs of tightening despite record overall grain production, according to the latest Grain Market Report from the International Grains Council (IGC). Rising demand, lower-than-expected carryover stocks, and logistical bottlenecks in key exporting regions are driving renewed attention from millers and traders worldwide.
The report shows that the global grain production in the 2025/26 season is forecast at about 2.46 billion tonnes, setting a new historical high, even as supply conditions tighten slightly compared to prior projections. The modest month-on-month reduction of roughly 1 million tonnes primarily reflects revised barley estimates, with near-offsetting adjustments across other major crops. Total supply outlook, factoring in smaller opening stocks, points to carryover inventories at around 631 million tonnes, about 3 million tonnes lower than previously expected, signaling a somewhat tighter global position.
Wheat output, supported by stronger harvests in key exporting countries such as Argentina and Canada, contributed to the overall production increase, with maize, barley and sorghum also raising the total grains figure. Global grain trade is forecast to rise to about 449 million tonnes, underpinned by growing demand in Asia and healthier export volumes.
Despite record production, early indicators for the 2026/27 season point to potential global wheat supply tightening, driven by expectations of reduced harvested area and rising consumption levels. The IGC noted that although forecasts remain tentative, demand growth combined with subdued planting intentions in some regions could result in a less abundant crop next year.
The International Grains Council report also highlighted that global soyabean and rice markets are broadly steady, with slightly higher carryover stocks, while the IGC Grains & Oilseeds Index (GOI) has shown strengthening in recent weeks across cereals and oilseeds.
