Production and consumption projections for wheat, rice corn and soy
by Mehmet Uğur Gürkaynak
Mr Mehmet Uğur Gürkaynak is the Turkey, Eurasia and Middle East Director for Perendale Publishers Ltd Director. This report is compiled from information sourced from recent information releases by IGC, FAO and USDA and the Turkish Agriculture Ministry. This selection of findings examines projections for wheat, rice corn and soy production and consumption for the coming year.
A record increase in wheat production
In line with the projections, it is expected that the production will increase by 1.7 percent in the 2020/21 production season compared to the previous year, to 776.78 million tons. It is thought that the expected increase of 33 million tons in Australian production will play an important role in this increase.
Depending on this increase in production, wheat supply is expected to increase by 3.5 million tons and reach 1.08 billion tons, with the effect of the increase in exports in Canada and Australia, it is predicted that global wheat exports will increase by 3.22 compared to the previous year and 1.46 percent compared to the previous month's estimate.
Due to the impact of the change in wheat imports in Pakistan and China in March, it is estimated that it will be 1.11 percent higher than the forecast of the previous month. Looking at the subject in terms of global wheat use, it is thought that the increase in feed and end use demand of China will be effective in the 2020/21 production season and the rate of global use will increase by 3.9 percent compared to the previous year.
For the 2021/22 production season, it is predicted that global wheat production will increase by a record 2.1 percent compared with the same month of the previous year, whereas global trade will decrease by 3.2 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
Consumption is estimated to increase by 2.4 percent compared to the same month of the previous year and the global wheat stock will decrease by two million tons compared to the previous month.
As for the global wheat export prices, the US Red Wheat (HRW) price increased by 10 percent to US$263 per Ton, and the US Red Soft Wheat (SRW) price increased by 10 percent to US$275 per Ton.
Rice – no significant change
It is predicted that there will be a decrease in production in Australia and Bangladesh in the 2020/21 season, but the increase in production in India will make up this deficit. It is estimated that there will be an annual increase of one percent, with the effect of the increase in production in the main exporting countries. A record production of 510 million tons is expected in 2021/22 season, due to the increase in cultivation areas
Owing to the increase in demand in Africa and Asia, there is a four percent growth this year compared to last year. It is also estimated that the demand in Africa will increase in the next year too.
Although a decrease in exports of Thailand and Brazil is expected, it is thought that the increase in Indian exports will balance this deficit and previous estimates will come true.
In terms of consumption, it reached 504 million tons with an increase of 500 thousand tons. This increase is due to the increase in demand on the Indian side. Depending on the feed use, it is expected that there will be an increase in demand in China compared to the previous season, although no significant change is expected in year-end stocks compared to the previous year.
The situation in export prices is as follows; Thailand export price is US$501 per Ton, India export price is US$408 per Ton and Vietnam export price is US$513 per Ton.
Global use of corn in feed to increase by one million ton
An increase of five million tons in global corn production, two million tons in trade and four million tons in consumption is expected with feed and industrial use. While the production in South Africa, Bangladesh and India is increasing, there is an expectation of a decrease in the production in Mexico.
An increase is expected in the exports of South Africa and India, whilst the imports of the Philippines and Bangladesh, with an increase of one million tons is predicted globally in feed use. Vietnam is expecting an increase in imports and exports of corn over the coming year.
No difference is foreseen in the year-end stock estimation compared to the previous month. It is estimated that the production will reach 1.2 billion tons and the consumption will exceed this figure.
Currently, it is stated that the export prices are US$252 per Ton for the USA and US$271 per Ton for Brazil.
Soy expecting second consecutive decline
It is estimated that the harvested areas will increase by four percent in the 2021/22 season and accordingly, the production will reach 383 million tons. It is not predicted that global soybean exports in 2020/21 season will not change much compared to the estimates of the previous month.
While it is predicted that global soybean imports will not change much in the 2020/21 season compared to the estimates of the previous month, it is expected that soybean imports by China will peak and exceed 100 million tons in 2021/22.
It is estimated that there will be an increase in consumption compared to the previous period.
Global export prices are as follows; Brazil 520 USD per Ton, Argentina 515 USD per Ton and USA US$554 per Ton.
Global soybean year-end stocks: A second consecutive decline is expected in the 2020/21 season with the decrease in US stocks following the busy export season.